Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:45:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2f0d…5de2 other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 263d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,058 (+13%) realized +$5,355 · open −$297
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%37W / 43L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$371per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$9,430now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,069
7 days+$3,773
14 days+$4,076
30 days+$4,076
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$4,572
sports 5% +$11
world 3% −$526
crypto 2% +$418
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +26.3% +14.2% 62% 62% +22.6%
≤30d 38 +21.1% +9.6% 55% 53% +17.2%
≤90d 50 +19.1% +7.7% 56% 54% +16.7%
all 80 +2.9% -6.9% 46% 45% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 45% +6.0%
10% -15.8% 41% -4.1%
15% -23.9% 38% -13.4%
20% -31.4% 31% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$372 vs −$209 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$9,430
Realized+$5,355
Unrealized−$297
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses37 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions22
Markets (closed)80 / 102
History coverage263d
Avg bet$371
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $800 $813 +$13 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $800 $796 −$4 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $800 $794 −$6 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 48¢ 30¢ $1,100 $706 −$394 (-36%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $600 $589 −$11 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $600 $580 −$20 (-3%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $500 $492 −$8 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $500 $489 −$11 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $300 $393 +$93 (+31%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $277 $340 +$63 (+23%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $250 $245 −$5 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $200 $231 +$31 (+16%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $200 $182 −$18 (-9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $150 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $808 +$413 +51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $913 +$1,148 +126%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $603 −$600 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $507 +$386 +76%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $266 +$774 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $401 +$48 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $405 +$241 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $403 +$117 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $164 −$160 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $303 −$11 -4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $504 +$194 +38%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $405 +$285 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $307 +$910 +297%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 +$192 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $505 +$212 +42%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $704 +$149 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $818 +$384 +47%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$298 +291%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $406 +$394 +97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,502 +$85 +6%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $83 +$343 +414%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $205 −$201 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $203 −$201 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$201 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$232 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $256 −$17 -7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $194 +$306 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $283 +$117 +42%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 25 $900 −$900 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 25 $700 +$399 +57%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $300 −$294 -98%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $100 −$97 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $1,000 +$794 +79%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 14 $800 +$273 +34%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $300 +$356 +119%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 08 $300 +$540 +180%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 07 $400 +$314 +79%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 29 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 29 $150 −$150 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 27 $1,000 +$1,042 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 35m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 35m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 37m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $404 38m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $304 23h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $504 23h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $510 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 23h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $256 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $603 23h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $506 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $610 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $802 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $607 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $404 23h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $301 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 39¢ $233 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,430.24 · official $9,430.31 (match) · 273 history records