Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:54:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2f0d…3fd3
other · 287 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$157 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$127 · open −$35
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$635
Realized−$127
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses214 / 64
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)278 / 287
History coverage80d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 9 History 278 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$83
14 days−$222
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 56¢ 50¢ $313 $280 −$33 (-11%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $225 $225 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 90¢ 89¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube video? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-24? Yes 26¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Stars vs. Wild Wild 79¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Space FDV above $5M one day after launch? Yes 93¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Wall Street" during WHCA Dinner events? Yes 78¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bengaluru 3: Keegan Smith vs Manish Sureshkumar Keegan Smith 84¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Midterm" or "Election" 3+ times during WHCA Dinner events? Yes 77¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Powell say "War" during April press conference? Yes 69¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Yes 37¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-26? Yes 41¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 34¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during King Charles visit? Yes 69¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Yes 64¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Spurs 85¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 65¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in April? Yes 69¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 13 $435 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$7 +25%
Will "China" or "Chinese" be said during the next episode of the Lemon Jun 11 $13 $0 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 10 $58 −$1 -1%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti Jun 10 $20 −$17 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will Starmer say "Police" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 10 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions even Jun 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Tucuman: Juan Sebastian Gomez vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 09 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 09 $244 −$127 -52%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $576 +$45 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $10 +$3 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 03 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 03 $264 −$137 -52%
Will Starmer say "Reform" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 03 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $114 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$4 +39%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev Jun 01 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Electi May 31 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 May 31 $20 +$1 +4%
Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next YouTube video? May 30 $15 $0 +3%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 30 $191 +$6 +3%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 29 $119 +$1 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $20 +$4 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $29 +$6 +20%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 28 $369 +$47 +13%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 28 $178 +$28 +16%
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in the US in May? May 28 $13 −$1 -6%
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? May 27 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift's wedding? May 27 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $11 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 25 $32 $0 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Clement Tabur May 24 $17 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Coleman Wong May 24 $15 +$2 +13%
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? May 24 $10 $0 -4%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? May 24 $10 $0 -1%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 70°F or higher on May May 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government May 24 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the May 24 $20 −$1 -3%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? May 23 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Governme May 23 $10 −$1 -6%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1 $0 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 32% −$54
other 21% −$152
politics 18% +$37
weather 8% +$38
sports 7% +$36
economics 6% +$1
world 5% −$43
culture 1% −$13
crypto 1% −$10
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $17 1h
Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube v BUY Yes 96¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $25 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $32 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $31 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 38h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 40h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $19 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $50 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? BUY Yes 79¢ $30 2d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 92¢ $10 2d
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 BUY Yes 73¢ $25 2d
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti SELL Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $73 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 2d
Will "China" or "Chinese" be said during the next episode of the Lemon BUY Yes 97¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 10? BUY Yes 97¢ $16 4d
Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions even BUY Yes 89¢ $10 4d
Will Starmer say "Police" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e BUY Yes 91¢ $10 4d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 4d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $31 4d
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 BUY Yes 73¢ $30 4d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 32¢ $117 4d
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 BUY Yes 73¢ $19 4d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -3.9% -13.1% 79% 21% -14.5%
≤30d 108 +2.4% -7.3% 73% 25% -11.5%
≤90d 278 -3.6% -12.7% 77% 26% -11.1%
all 278 -3.6% -12.7% 77% 26% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 26% -11.1%
10% -21.1% 12% -19.6%
15% -28.7% 6% -27.3%
20% -35.7% 4% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $634.56 · official $634.56 (match) · 739 history records