Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:16:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2F 0x2f0c…04e1 crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (154 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$1,320 (+17%) realized +$1,320 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day154.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (154 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +56.8% +41.9% 57% 54% +0.3%
≤30d 37 +56.8% +41.9% 57% 54% +0.3%
≤90d 37 +56.8% +41.9% 57% 54% +0.3%
all 37 +56.8% +41.9% 57% 54% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover154.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +41.9% 54% +0.3%
10% ← realistic here +28.3% 49% -9.3%
15% +15.9% 49% -18.1%
20% +4.5% 43% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +114% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$137 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,320
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage1d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day154.0
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$45 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $309 +$215 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $415 +$308 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $310 +$260 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $310 +$231 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$16 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $207 +$175 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $207 −$104 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $207 +$188 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$83 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $311 +$295 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $307 +$190 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $207 +$193 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $515 +$364 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $413 −$139 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $203 −$143 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $413 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $310 −$175 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $207 +$185 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $310 +$266 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $144 −$140 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $205 −$128 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $58 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $524 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $722 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.00 (match) · 167 history records