Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:41:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2F 0x2f0b…e903 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$7 (-4%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +61% what you keep after slip
Net edge+61%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$22
sports 36% +$16
other 10% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+61.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +103.4% +84.0% 67% 67% -0.5%
≤30d 3 +103.4% +84.0% 67% 67% -0.5%
≤90d 3 +103.4% +84.0% 67% 67% -0.5%
all 5 +78.0% +61.1% 60% 60% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +61.1% 60% -14.0%
10% +45.7% 40% -22.2%
15% +31.6% 40% -29.8%
20% +18.7% 40% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +78% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$16 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage163d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $52 +$9 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 +$8 +92%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $90 −$22 -24%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $7 +$7 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $61 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $52 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $11 2h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 24h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $15 24h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 26h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 26h
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 0¢ $0 114d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 9¢ $10 115d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 9¢ $68 115d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 4¢ $30 115d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 62¢ $50 115d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $14 163d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? BUY Yes 46¢ $7 163d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records