Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2F 0x2f0a…3c1a world 3 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (374 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$716 (+87%) realized +$716 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +99% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +53% what you keep after slip
Net edge+53%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$274per market
Trades / day374.0pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$395
sports 50% +$321
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+79.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +98.7% +79.8% 100% 100% +69.2%
≤30d 3 +98.7% +79.8% 100% 100% +69.2%
≤90d 3 +98.7% +79.8% 100% 100% +69.2%
all 3 +98.7% +79.8% 100% 100% +69.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover374.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +79.8% 100% +69.2%
10% ← realistic here +62.6% 100% +53.0%
15% +46.9% 100% +38.2%
20% +32.5% 100% +24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +87% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +99% · $-wt +87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
68.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$239 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$716
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$274
Trades / day374.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se Jun 27 $411 +$321 +78%
Will Mookie Betts win the 2026 National League MVP Award? Jun 27 $92 +$122 +133%
Will Elly De La Cruz win the 2026 National League MVP Award? Jun 27 $320 +$273 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se SELL Yes 0¢ $9 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se SELL Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se SELL Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se SELL Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se SELL Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se SELL Yes 0¢ $9 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se SELL Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se SELL Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se SELL Yes 0¢ $9 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se SELL Yes 0¢ $8 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se SELL Yes 0¢ $7 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se SELL Yes 0¢ $7 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se SELL Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Nico Hoerner lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular se SELL Yes 0¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 374 history records