Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:26:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f08…cbe8 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$61 (-15%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$76
other 44% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -7.4% -16.2% 57% 50% -15.5%
≤30d 14 -7.4% -16.2% 57% 50% -15.5%
≤90d 14 -7.4% -16.2% 57% 50% -15.5%
all 14 -7.4% -16.2% 57% 50% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 50% -15.5%
10% -24.2% 36% -23.6%
15% -31.5% 36% -31.0%
20% -38.2% 29% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$22 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $34 +$18 +54%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Norway vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $20 −$18 -91%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $44 +$8 +19%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $20 +$24 +118%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $49 −$48 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $41 +$8 +20%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 +$20 +101%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $57 −$23 -40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 +$17 +67%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 +$10 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $34 6h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 6h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $32 6h
Norway vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes $2 6h
Norway vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 7h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 7h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $52 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 83¢ $44 12h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 13h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 14h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 26¢ $20 32h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $49 32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $49 39h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $41 39h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 99¢ $18 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 89¢ $16 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 29¢ $16 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $41 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 59¢ $24 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records