trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -43.3% | -48.7% | 29% | 0% | -47.4% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -45.9% | -51.1% | 27% | 0% | -47.6% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -48.7% | -53.6% | 25% | 6% | -6.6% |
| all | 16 | -48.7% | -53.6% | 25% | 6% | -6.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -53.6% | 6% | -6.6% |
| 10% | -58.0% | 6% | -15.5% |
| 15% | -62.1% | 6% | -23.7% |
| 20% | -65.8% | 6% | -31.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 50¢ | $440 | $486 | +$46 (+10%) |
| Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $344 | $307 | −$37 (-11%) |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 37¢ | $250 | $257 | +$7 (+3%) |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $302 | $237 | −$65 (-21%) |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $96 | $132 | +$36 (+38%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 16 | $1,948 | −$1,948 | -100% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 16 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 16 | $4,341 | −$4,341 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $4,000 | +$355 | +9% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $3,167 | +$84 | +3% |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $51 | −$5 | -10% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $525 | −$23 | -4% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 07 | $500 | +$15 | +3% |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Jun 03 | $26 | −$25 | -96% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | Jun 01 | $397 | −$397 | -100% |
| Will France win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $31 | −$30 | -95% |
| Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $306 | −$300 | -98% |
| Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | May 14 | $52 | −$50 | -96% |
| Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | May 14 | $52 | −$50 | -96% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | May 13 | $5,865 | +$7,416 | +126% |