Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:05:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2F 0x2f03…9372 crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,869 (-19%) realized −$1,909 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%25W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$118
7 days−$734
14 days−$734
30 days−$2,077
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$2,542
sports 13% +$333
other 2% +$63
weather 1% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -8.7% -17.4% 36% 36% -42.2%
≤30d 62 -6.5% -15.4% 40% 40% -29.3%
≤90d 62 -6.5% -15.4% 40% 40% -29.3%
all 62 -6.5% -15.4% 40% 40% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 40% -29.3%
10% -23.5% 40% -36.1%
15% -30.9% 39% -42.2%
20% -37.7% 35% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$145 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$1,909
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses25 / 37
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage22d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Doosan Bears 52¢ 90¢ $55 $95 +$40 (+72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$29 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $90 +$139 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$28 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $73 −$73 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$72 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $84 −$84 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$44 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $63 +$125 +200%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$61 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$20 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $109 −$109 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 12 $51 −$5 -10%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 12 $66 −$2 -4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $110 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $110 −$110 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $44 +$69 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $56 +$48 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 29? May 29 $55 +$108 +197%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 29 $56 −$3 -5%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 29 $61 −$3 -4%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 29 $180 +$137 +76%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears May 29 $76 −$76 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 29 $51 +$65 +128%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 28 $73 +$90 +124%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 28 $164 +$180 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 28 $117 −$117 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 28 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 28 $77 +$39 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 27 $170 +$53 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 27 $237 −$237 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 27 $420 −$420 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 27 $103 +$72 +70%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $117 −$6 -5%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 27 $112 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 27 $779 −$779 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 27 $301 −$301 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 27 $572 +$680 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 27 $664 +$333 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 27 $401 +$257 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 52¢ $56 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $61 1h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears SELL Doosan Bears 55¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $103 1h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 35¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $42 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $53 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $63 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $84 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $52 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $109 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers SELL Doosan Bears 44¢ $46 6d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 61¢ $63 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $104 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 51¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $100 6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $110 6d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 62¢ $66 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $113 6d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Doosan Bears 47¢ $51 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $44 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.67 · official $90.44 · 155 history records