Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2F 0x2f03…fa6d sports 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,741 (-13%) realized −$1,957 · open +$216
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%35W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$130est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$716now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days−$2,024
14 days−$1,741
30 days−$1,882
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$677
other 29% −$548
crypto 17% −$441
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -29.6% -36.3% 31% 31% -28.4%
≤30d 92 -21.0% -28.6% 38% 38% -23.1%
≤90d 92 -21.0% -28.6% 38% 38% -23.1%
all 92 -21.0% -28.6% 38% 38% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 38% -23.1%
10% -35.4% 38% -30.5%
15% -41.6% 38% -37.2%
20% -47.4% 37% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$123 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$716
Realized−$1,957
Unrealized+$216
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses35 / 57
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions4
Markets (closed)92 / 97
History coverage16d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 14¢ $100 $279 +$179 (+179%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ 92¢ $100 $141 +$41 (+41%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $98 −$95 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $101 −$95 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $106 +$397 +376%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $98 −$95 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $98 +$57 +58%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $693 −$684 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $305 +$376 +123%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $204 +$296 +145%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $103 −$87 -85%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $102 +$110 +108%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $293 −$289 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $821 +$466 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$139 +272%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $392 +$445 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $315 −$310 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $329 −$323 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $336 −$330 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $202 +$105 +52%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $203 +$145 +72%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$85 +84%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 11 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $163 −$163 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $157 −$157 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $153 −$153 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $133 −$133 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $195 −$195 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $153 −$153 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 11 $245 −$245 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $89 −$89 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 11 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $132 −$132 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $306 −$306 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $102 +$207 +203%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $45 −$44 -97%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $503 +$540 +107%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $101 +$61 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $98 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $502 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $154 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $98 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $540 6h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $681 11h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $305 14h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $499 14h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $204 16h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 25h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $16 25h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $150 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $203 31h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $211 31h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $102 31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $293 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,287 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $821 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $190 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $715.64 · official $715.84 (match) · 185 history records