Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2F 0x2f01…4c3a crypto 1892 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,061 (-18%) realized −$3,064 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate80%1582W / 388L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day46.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,283
7 days−$1,291
14 days−$1,292
30 days−$1,357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$218
weather 9% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 218 -38.0% -43.9% 44% 39% -72.4%
≤30d 1224 -7.1% -15.9% 78% 65% -22.4%
≤90d 1970 -5.4% -14.4% 80% 61% -17.3%
all 1970 -5.4% -14.4% 80% 61% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 61% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 9% -25.2%
15% -30.1% 5% -32.4%
20% -36.9% 3% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$3,064
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1582 / 388
Open positions20
Markets (closed)1970 / 1892
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day46.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 1970 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 17? No 65¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? No 59¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 17? No 61¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? No 76¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 17? No 73¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? No 65¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? No 51¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+96%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 17? No 91¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? No 77¢ 91¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? No 90¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? No 92¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? No 65¢ 84¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? No 69¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? No 68¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? No 69¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? No 52¢ 44¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? No 64¢ 65¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? No 85¢ 32¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? No 59¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 77°F or below on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 386 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on May 3? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 74°F or higher on May 2? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 30? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 28? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 2? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 28? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 6? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 3? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 5? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 4? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 5? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 27? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 30? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 4? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on May 8? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 2? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 5? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 1? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 1? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 3? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 7? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $7 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $9 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 64¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 69¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $2 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.02 · official $37.37 (match) · 3500 history records