Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2eff…9db0 world 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+1%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 33L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days−$4
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$36
sports 22% +$3
politics 15% $0
other 15% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.4% -9.1% 38% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 28 +2.6% -7.1% 29% 4% -7.7%
≤90d 40 +1.6% -8.1% 30% 2% -8.3%
all 47 +0.7% -8.9% 30% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -8.8%
10% -17.6% 2% -17.5%
15% -25.6% 2% -25.5%
20% -32.9% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 33
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage97d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $68 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $65 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $75 +$2 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $67 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $8 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $74 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $66 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $121 −$8 -6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $203 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $46 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $81 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $94 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $75 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $66 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $53 +$41 +77%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $85 +$2 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $80 −$2 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $44 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $69 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $77 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $52 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $57 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $33 $0 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $72 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $12 +$1 +4%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $243 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $72 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $579 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $23 −$7 -31%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 17 $226 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $235 +$1 +0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $21 −$1 -5%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 16 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 13 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $42 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $26 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $68 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $24 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $65 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $74 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $75 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $32 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $36 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $12 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $39 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $17 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $47 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $27 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $74 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $20 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $32 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 223 history records