Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2E 0x2efa…3296 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$24 (+3%) realized +$49 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$426now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$42
14 days+$41
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$21
sports 36% +$3
crypto 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +24.3% +12.5% 46% 46% +0.9%
≤30d 21 +29.7% +17.3% 48% 48% -1.3%
≤90d 21 +29.7% +17.3% 48% 48% -1.3%
all 21 +29.7% +17.3% 48% 48% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.3% 48% -1.3%
10% +6.1% 33% -10.7%
15% -4.2% 29% -19.4%
20% -13.6% 24% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +47% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$14 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$426
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)21 / 30
History coverage23d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 84¢ $126 $144 +$18 (+14%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $125 $98 −$27 (-22%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $39 −$11 (-21%)
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 13¢ 25¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+92%)
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Yes 28¢ 20¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Yes 39¢ 22¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $25 +$33 +129%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $132 +$24 +18%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$11 +55%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$7 +48%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $13 +$91 +712%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +550%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -89%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +13%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 06 $6 +$2 +27%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $12 +$2 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 04 $5 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $20 1h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 39¢ $20 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will France win on 2026 BUY 63¢ $25 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Türkiye vs. Unite BUY 37¢ $38 19h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $25 19h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $132 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 4d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $20 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $129 5d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $127 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 5d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes $8 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $3 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $36 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 13d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 14d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 SELL Over $0 14d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $3 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 14d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $8 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 BUY Over 78¢ $6 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $425.65 · official $449.92 · 51 history records