Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:03:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ef9…71c3 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$32
world 38% +$7
politics 8% $0
culture 4% +$1
sports 4% +$18
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 5 -2.4% -11.7% 20% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 36% 7% -9.1%
all 44 +0.4% -9.2% 27% 5% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 5% -10.2%
10% -17.9% 2% -18.8%
15% -25.8% 2% -26.7%
20% -33.1% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage268d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $66 $69 +$4 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $58 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $47 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $46 −$6 -14%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $57 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $34 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $43 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $37 +$2 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $6 $0 -8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $68 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $4 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 18 $37 +$5 +13%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $62 −$32 -51%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $158 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $86 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $14 $0 -0%
Clippers vs. Hornets Nov 24 $27 +$18 +70%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $22 +$1 +5%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $6 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 04 $7 $0 -6%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Sep 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $66 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $52 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $18 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $35 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $6 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $21 14h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $9 14h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $17 14h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $11 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $20 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $16 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $2 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $38 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 43¢ $46 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $57 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $57 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $11 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $25 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $19 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $17 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $37 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $42 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $11 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $32 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $35 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.35 · official $69.35 (match) · 200 history records