Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ef9…11b4 other 780 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,079 (-2%) realized −$1,070 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate70%546W / 232L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day31.1pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$735
14 days−$227
30 days−$449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$808
sports 28% −$450
crypto 4% −$514
world 3% +$363
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -5.6% -14.6% 69% 62% -17.1%
≤30d 539 -3.1% -12.3% 72% 60% -10.4%
≤90d 778 -2.5% -11.8% 70% 57% -12.2%
all 778 -2.5% -11.8% 70% 57% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 57% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 34% -20.6%
15% -28.0% 20% -28.3%
20% -35.0% 12% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$38 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$1,070
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses546 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions2
Markets (closed)778 / 780
History coverage46d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 778 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 65¢ 80¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
England leading at halftime? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 +$13 +29%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $22 +$3 +13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 +$8 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$26 +52%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $40 −$33 -83%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $20 +$3 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$3 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $46 −$38 -81%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $63 −$37 -58%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $17 +$8 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $36 −$19 -53%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 +$6 +24%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $29 +$3 +10%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 +$3 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $81 +$43 +54%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$6 +30%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 +$5 +12%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $68 +$10 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Game Handicap: ONIC (-1.5) vs Bigetron by Vitality (+1.5) Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $302 −$300 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $652 −$104 -16%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$163 +54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$144 -71%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $22 −$22 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $100 +$8 +8%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$26 +52%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $50 +$6 +12%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $71 −$34 -47%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$15 +14%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $100 +$15 +14%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$20 +20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $50 +$13 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 57m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY DR Congo 88¢ $50 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $25 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $22 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $50 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $23 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $54 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $15 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $50 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 18h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Algeria 14¢ $7 18h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 83¢ $40 19h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 19h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $28 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $25 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 80¢ $10 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $39 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $14 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.17 · official $60.40 (match) · 1765 history records