Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:59:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ef9…b403 crypto 875 markets active 3d ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$81,065 (-11%) realized −$81,065 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate83%730W / 145L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$820per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Fees−$1,704est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,127
14 days+$5,278
30 days+$5,278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$12,318
sports 21% −$74,963
other 0% +$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.7% -10.2% 70% 33% -12.5%
≤30d 39 +2.1% -7.6% 69% 41% -2.5%
≤90d 875 -2.6% -11.9% 83% 27% -20.5%
all 875 -2.6% -11.9% 83% 27% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 27% -20.5%
10% -20.3% 17% -28.1%
15% ← realistic here -28.0% 10% -35.1%
20% -35.1% 8% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$748) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$1,329 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81,065
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses730 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$1,704
Open positions0
Markets (closed)875 / 875
History coverage82d
Avg bet$820
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 875 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $401 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $502 +$24 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $697 +$228 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $566 +$95 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $416 +$514 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $827 +$32 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $802 +$26 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $778 +$45 +6%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $820 −$32 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $553 +$42 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $411 +$255 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $308 +$193 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $306 −$306 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $401 +$17 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $605 +$87 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET Jun 11 $4,296 +$2,965 +69%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $965 +$52 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $4,135 −$215 -5%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $709 −$442 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $605 +$70 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $2,246 +$887 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $1,535 +$730 +48%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,954 −$2,692 -91%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $3,689 −$3,287 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $208 −$200 -96%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 09 $3,657 −$60 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1AM ET Jun 07 $4,521 +$4,513 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12AM ET Jun 07 $2,242 +$966 +43%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $2,913 −$2,874 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3AM ET Jun 06 $7,069 +$2,636 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 1AM ET Jun 06 $2,540 +$1,252 +49%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $3,785 +$2,049 +54%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $2,710 +$1,071 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $7,067 −$2,459 -35%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $873 −$749 -86%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 12 $7,342 −$7,238 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 12 $346 −$335 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 12 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 12 $195 −$191 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 12 $625 +$16 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 12 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 12 $401 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 12 $256 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 12 $180 +$27 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 12 $605 +$80 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 12 $451 +$153 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3344 history records