Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ef7…2e67 other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26 (-1%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% −$11
other 18% +$5
sports 3% −$21
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 0% 0% -15.7%
≤30d 18 -5.6% -14.6% 11% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 38 -5.5% -14.5% 21% 8% -10.7%
all 49 -4.3% -13.4% 22% 6% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 6% -10.2%
10% -21.7% 6% -18.8%
15% -29.3% 6% -26.6%
20% -36.2% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 38
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage592d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $13 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $61 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $62 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $67 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $65 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $4 +$7 +165%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $8 +$4 +50%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $6 +$5 +79%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $45 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 27 $45 −$1 -1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 01 $41 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $300 −$3 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $1,191 −$2 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 03 $765 −$7 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 02 $120 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 1h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 3h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 23h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 27h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 6d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $7 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 8d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 47¢ $5 8d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 20d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 99¢ $25 24d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.94 · official $35.94 (match) · 224 history records