Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:06:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ef7…4439 crypto 804 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$226 (+1%) realized +$224 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%362W / 440L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$191
14 days−$592
30 days−$1,082
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,056
other 1% −$43
sports 0% +$22
tech 0% +$5
finance 0% −$25
world 0% −$9
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -31.9% -38.4% 35% 34% -26.7%
≤30d 440 -23.0% -30.3% 37% 34% -23.9%
≤90d 802 -15.7% -23.7% 45% 41% -15.3%
all 802 -15.7% -23.7% 45% 41% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 41% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 36% -23.4%
15% -37.7% 30% -30.8%
20% -43.8% 24% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$224
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses362 / 440
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)802 / 804
History coverage52d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 802 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Down 0¢ 55¢ $0 $32 +$32 (+0%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 396 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $47 +$40 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $61 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$11 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $36 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $6 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $64 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $31 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.87 · official $42.84 · 1852 history records