Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:17:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2E 0x2ef4…1077 politics 5 markets active 18d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$444 (-80%) realized −$444 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -85% what you keep after slip
Net edge-85%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$255
economics 19% −$100
world 18% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-84.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -82.3% -84.0% 0% 0% -84.8%
≤90d 5 -82.3% -84.0% 0% 0% -84.8%
all 5 -82.3% -84.0% 0% 0% -84.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -84.0% 0% -84.8%
10% -85.5% 0% -86.3%
15% -86.9% 0% -87.6%
20% -88.2% 0% -88.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -82% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$91 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$444
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 09 $104 −$48 -46%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $104 −$67 -65%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $144 −$139 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 09 $105 −$100 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records