Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ef4…78aa world 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$3
other 12% −$6
economics 4% $0
politics 4% +$1
weather 3% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.9% -10.4% 25% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 8 -0.9% -10.4% 25% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 8 -0.9% -10.4% 25% 0% -10.4%
all 24 -3.2% -12.4% 38% 4% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 4% -11.4%
10% -20.8% 4% -19.8%
15% -28.4% 0% -27.6%
20% -35.5% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early 2.086516280481524% → late -8.441322340360667% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage455d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $35 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $36 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $39 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $40 −$2 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $38 $0 -1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 29 $5 $0 +5%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $4 +$1 +23%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $1 $0 +2%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Apr 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 22 $9 $0 -1%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on March 18? Mar 19 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 7h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $7 7h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 7h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $13 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $22 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $26 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $10 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $7 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $32 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $39 46h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $39 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $39 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 32¢ $14 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 32¢ $22 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 32¢ $2 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $40 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $23 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 96¢ $7 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 96¢ $31 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 97¢ $38 6d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $5 350d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $1 374d
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? BUY No 90¢ $6 396d
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL No 98¢ $7 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records