Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:28:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ef3…fbca politics 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 34L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$505per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$7
other 23% −$4
world 19% −$5
sports 12% −$4
tech 12% −$2
culture 6% −$2
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 35 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 35 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,030) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage88d
Avg bet$505
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 24 $1,051 −$2 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 24 $61 $0 -0%
Anthropic CEO arrested? Jun 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 24 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 23 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 22 $1,110 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 22 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $1,084 −$2 -0%
Will Lee Kwang-jae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial electio May 24 $108 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $48 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 24 $23 $0 -0%
Macron out by June 30, 2026? May 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 21 $1,058 −$2 -0%
Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as th May 21 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close May 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $1,066 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 20 $1,016 −$2 -0%
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? May 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $1,000 $0 -0%
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? May 19 $995 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $18 $0 +1%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $141 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 02 $149 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026? Apr 01 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP) win the 2026 South Korean local Mar 28 $134 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,049 1h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 1h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,030 1h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Anthropic CEO arrested? SELL No 100¢ $16 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 2h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $21 2h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $778 2h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $223 3h
Anthropic CEO arrested? BUY No 100¢ $16 3h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,002 3h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $75 22h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,068 22h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $21 22h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,014 22h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $25 22h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,017 22h
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $30 23h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $991 23h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 23h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $785 23h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 23h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 23h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $260 24h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,046 24h
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,109 40h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 40h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 40h
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,089 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records