Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:02:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ef2…faa5 weather 471 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,319 (+26%) realized +$4,319 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate36%244W / 429L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day117.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$1,396
crypto 1% +$9
politics 0% +$8
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (117 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 306 -49.8% -54.6% 20% 14% -21.2%
≤30d 673 -15.4% -23.4% 36% 26% -8.3%
≤90d 673 -15.4% -23.4% 36% 26% -8.3%
all 673 -15.4% -23.4% 36% 26% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover117.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.4% 26% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 21% -17.1%
15% -37.4% 17% -25.1%
20% -43.6% 14% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$4,319
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses244 / 429
Open positions1
Markets (closed)673 / 471
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day117.1
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 673 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 312 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on April 20? Jun 15 $20 −$15 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 10? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 10? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 15? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +250%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 8? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 6°C on April 25? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 24? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 21? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 29? Jun 15 $3 −$4 -115%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on April 1 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on March 28? Jun 15 $292 −$292 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 23? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 1? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 1? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 21? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 21? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 26? Jun 15 $0 $0 -446%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 5? Jun 15 $10 −$11 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on April 20? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on April 25? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on April 26? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 26? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 9? Jun 15 $0 $0 -155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 8? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 22? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 28? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 1? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on May 14? Jun 15 $60 −$70 -117%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 27? Jun 15 $34 −$26 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 8? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 3? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 26? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or higher on April 24? Jun 15 $1 −$8 -1351%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on May 13? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 11? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 10? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 1? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 28? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 2? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 33m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 75¢ $7 33m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 75¢ $8 33m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $64 36m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $26 38m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? BUY Yes 86¢ $32 39m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 40m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 40m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 47m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 47m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 64¢ $6 52m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 56m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 58¢ $12 58m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 69¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 28¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 85¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 3500 history records