Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:26:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ef2…16f5 crypto 305 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$193 (+9%) realized +$193 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%130W / 175L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day83.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$154
7 days+$13
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$36
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 260 -26.7% -33.7% 43% 33% -8.9%
≤30d 305 -22.9% -30.2% 43% 33% -7.9%
≤90d 305 -22.9% -30.2% 43% 33% -7.9%
all 305 -22.9% -30.2% 43% 33% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.2% 33% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -36.9% 24% -16.8%
15% -43.0% 15% -24.8%
20% -48.6% 10% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$193
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses130 / 175
Open positions0
Markets (closed)305 / 305
History coverage9d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day83.6
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 305 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$18 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $208 −$26 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $54 −$52 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $152 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $53 +$24 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $13 −$9 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -53%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$9 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $0 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1007 history records