trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 13 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $41 | $0 | -1% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 12 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 10 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 09 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 09 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 09 | $37 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 08 | $38 | $0 | -1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $5 | −$3 | -66% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 05 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? | Jun 21 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? | May 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Trump meets with Carney in March? | Apr 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? | Mar 31 | $3 | −$2 | -70% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? | Mar 30 | $25 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | Mar 29 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| OX.FUN insolvent before April? | Mar 29 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? | Mar 29 | $28 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend? | Mar 25 | $28 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? | Mar 21 | $13 | +$14 | +102% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 21 | $1 | $0 | -20% |
| Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? | Mar 19 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 12 | -5.6% | -14.6% | 25% | 0% | -10.5% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -5.2% | -14.2% | 23% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -5.2% | -14.2% | 23% | 0% | -10.4% |
| all | 28 | -5.2% | -14.3% | 43% | 4% | -8.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.3% | 4% | -8.4% |
| 10% | -22.5% | 4% | -17.1% |
| 15% | -30.0% | 4% | -25.1% |
| 20% | -36.8% | 4% | -32.5% |