Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2eeb…bd84 other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 286d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13,304 (-7%) realized −$13,508 · open +$204
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate80%82W / 21L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,703per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$2,110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$109
14 days+$431
30 days+$443
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$15,840
other 19% −$1,816
politics 16% +$3,186
economics 12% +$36
tech 4% +$397
sports 4% +$78
culture 1% +$615
crypto 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +7.8% -2.5% 61% 50% -7.5%
≤30d 29 +9.6% -0.9% 72% 48% -5.4%
≤90d 44 +4.4% -5.5% 73% 41% -10.0%
all 103 +4.7% -5.3% 80% 30% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 30% -16.4%
10% -14.3% 20% -24.4%
15% -22.6% 14% -31.7%
20% -30.2% 8% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$2,041) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$1,121 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

286d coverage
Net worth$2,110
Realized−$13,508
Unrealized+$204
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses82 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 106
History coverage286d
Avg bet$1,703
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $905 $1,066 +$161 (+18%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 93¢ 97¢ $1,000 $1,043 +$43 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 −$3 -5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$26 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $134 +$48 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$4 -8%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$48 -95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $51 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$65 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $38 +$23 +60%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -99%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 22 $2,854 +$2 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $1,199 +$9 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$21 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $76 +$25 +32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $1,015 +$55 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $49 +$29 +60%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $877 +$22 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $850 +$54 +6%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $826 +$124 +15%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $80 +$20 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $66 −$66 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $99 +$47 +48%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 29 $782 +$10 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 29 $117 +$2 +2%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $879 +$18 +2%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 13 $773 +$48 +6%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeti Apr 28 $577 +$75 +13%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $352 −$30 -8%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $247 −$180 -73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $587 +$181 +31%
GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026? Apr 23 $3 $0 +5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Apr 18 $723 −$136 -19%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 17 $334 +$18 +6%
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more? Apr 14 $497 +$80 +16%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $965 −$962 -100%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Apr 07 $1,502 +$125 +8%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Apr 07 $790 +$117 +15%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $686 +$38 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 30 $625 +$61 +10%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $1,776 +$23 +1%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $999 +$96 +10%
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more? Mar 16 $113 +$27 +24%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $447 +$12 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 06 $438 +$10 +2%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 04 $694 +$13 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 48¢ $0 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 1h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) AND Algeria vs. Austria: Second half draw? AND BUY 7¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 48¢ $45 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $48 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $134 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 49¢ $46 35h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $0 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $50 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 4d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 93¢ $1,003 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1,048 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,050 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,116 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $984 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $76 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $72 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $45 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,109.53 · official $2,119.23 (match) · 602 history records