Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2E 0x2ee9…47e5 sports 99 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$91 (+2%) realized +$15 · open +$76
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%57W / 39L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$969now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days−$136
14 days−$117
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$44
other 23% +$96
finance 4% +$48
tech 3% +$80
crypto 2% −$24
world 1% +$15
politics 1% −$40
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -35.3% -41.4% 42% 42% -15.8%
≤30d 50 -9.0% -17.7% 62% 58% -9.1%
≤90d 96 -6.0% -14.9% 59% 55% -8.6%
all 96 -6.0% -14.9% 59% 55% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 55% -8.6%
10% -23.1% 45% -17.3%
15% -30.5% 29% -25.3%
20% -37.3% 18% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$969
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses57 / 39
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)96 / 99
History coverage73d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Under 78¢ 92¢ $800 $936 +$136 (+17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $43 $33 −$10 (-23%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 27¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $951 −$17 -2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $606 +$137 +23%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$4 +22%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 +$8 +27%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$12 +57%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $20 +$6 +28%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $601 +$51 +8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $503 +$66 +13%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $30 +$10 +34%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $63 −$63 -100%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 04 $24 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $13 +$7 +50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $11 +$2 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $25 +$7 +27%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $8 +$2 +28%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $97 +$53 +54%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $20 +$7 +32%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 27 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 +$12 +79%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 24 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? May 24 $10 +$10 +92%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $26 +$10 +40%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 23 $10 +$10 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 23 $20 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $35 +$22 +63%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $7 +$6 +79%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to Score May 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 22 $15 +$5 +38%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN - Map 1 Winner May 22 $25 +$10 +40%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 22 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $2 $0 +16%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 19 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $301 +$23 +8%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $20 +$20 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $805 20m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 84¢ $934 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 85¢ $951 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $101 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $743 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $606 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 54¢ $101 29h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $25 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $40 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 78¢ $30 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $30 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 63¢ $20 5d
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $20 10d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 92¢ $601 10d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL BetBoom Team 93¢ $569 10d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BetBoom Team 82¢ $503 10d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 27¢ $20 10d
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $33 11d
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $31 11d
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 13d
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 13d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 47¢ $24 13d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 65¢ $13 14d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY B8 66¢ $13 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $969.02 · official $935.79 · 262 history records