Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:24:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
2E 0x2ee5…926c other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$114 (+3%) realized −$215 · open +$329
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$370per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$1,656now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$133
crypto 24% +$213
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -7.8% -16.6% 50% 40% -9.0%
≤30d 10 -7.8% -16.6% 50% 40% -9.0%
≤90d 10 -7.8% -16.6% 50% 40% -9.0%
all 10 -7.8% -16.6% 50% 40% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 40% -9.0%
10% -24.5% 10% -17.7%
15% -31.8% 10% -25.6%
20% -38.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$49 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1,656
Realized−$215
Unrealized+$329
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage7d
Avg bet$370
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 78¢ 97¢ $1,328 $1,656 +$329 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,123 −$136 -12%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 -6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $963 +$213 +22%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $108 −$7 -7%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 $0 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -49%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $397 +$47 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $942 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $204 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $204 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 41¢ $18 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $79 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 62¢ $389 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 62¢ $519 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $919 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $204 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,176 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $368 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $493 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 12h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 93¢ $3 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 50¢ $49 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 50¢ $49 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 52¢ $102 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 25h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 25h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 25h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 26h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $252 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $192 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,656.38 · official $1,656.38 (match) · 40 history records