Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ee3…089e crypto 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-7%) realized −$40 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$17
sports 29% +$14
other 21% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +5.6% -4.4% 57% 57% -10.9%
≤30d 30 +5.6% -4.4% 57% 57% -10.9%
≤90d 30 +5.6% -4.4% 57% 57% -10.9%
all 30 +5.6% -4.4% 57% 57% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 57% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 47% -19.4%
15% -21.9% 40% -27.2%
20% -29.6% 27% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)30 / 37
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Under 57¢ 75¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+32%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Under 54¢ 88¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+64%)
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 80¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+32%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 33¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$26 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$23 +439%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +28%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3 +$3 +93%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $7 +$2 +38%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $24 +$3 +14%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $2 +$4 +188%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 +$3 +73%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $6 +$5 +76%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $11 +$2 +18%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $36 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY 43¢ $10 4h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 4h
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $14 4h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $12 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.18 · official $76.01 · 63 history records