Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ee2…b4cc politics 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,101 (+1%) realized +$1,101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%5W / 79L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$1,328per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$503now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$21
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$73
other 43% +$1,398
sports 4% +$10
world 2% −$261
tech 1% −$2
economics 1% −$2
culture 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 84 -0.3% -9.8% 6% 5% -8.7%
all 84 -0.3% -9.8% 6% 5% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 5% -8.7%
10% -18.5% 5% -17.4%
15% -26.3% 5% -25.4%
20% -33.6% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,683) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$330 vs −$7 · ×45.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.86 per $1 lost it wins $2.86
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$503
Realized+$1,101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses5 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage86d
Avg bet$1,328
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $503 $503 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $222 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $3,360 −$6 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,178 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,970 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $2,399 −$4 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,927 −$5 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $858 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $2,691 −$5 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $987 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $2,379 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $371 +$1 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,045 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,694 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $449 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,051 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,489 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $1,558 −$2 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $2,752 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $1,698 −$2 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,689 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $3,273 −$4 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $1,539 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $1,464 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $1,565 −$2 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $1,694 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $1,608 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $1,617 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $1,683 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $3,126 −$4 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 14 $1,687 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $1,653 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $1,478 −$2 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $1,606 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,235 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $1,686 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,688 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,615 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $221 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $222 4h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $431 6d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $431 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $482 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $483 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $463 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $463 6d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $503 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $630 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $631 11d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $858 12d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $859 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $836 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $837 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $857 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $858 13d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $753 14d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $754 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $819 18d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $820 18d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $915 19d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $916 19d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $985 20d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $987 20d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $669 20d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $670 20d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $800 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $503.04 · official $503.04 (match) · 284 history records