Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2edc…9b36 world 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate28%22W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$3
other 23% −$8
politics 19% $0
economics 6% $0
sports 5% −$4
crypto 2% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 29 +39.4% +26.1% 34% 14% -9.3%
≤90d 66 +17.3% +6.1% 30% 6% -9.4%
all 78 +11.7% +1.1% 28% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 5% -9.9%
10% -8.6% 1% -18.5%
15% -17.4% 1% -26.4%
20% -25.5% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses22 / 56
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)78 / 81
History coverage532d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 66¢ 95¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $67 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $32 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $16 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $31 −$4 -13%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $105 +$3 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $66 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $106 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $139 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $90 +$4 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +20%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $66 −$2 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $73 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $31 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $3 +$1 +21%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $31 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $34 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $65 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 19 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $67 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $29 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $69 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $66 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $4 $0 -2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $62 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $76 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $34 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $35 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $35 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $32 19h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $33 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $32 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $32 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $32 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $16 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $16 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $28 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $28 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $28 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $24 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $8 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $8 7d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $27 7d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $9 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $4 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $8 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.43 · official $0.00 · 342 history records