Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:00:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ed6…b0b3 sports 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 700d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1,248 (-2%) realized +$29 · open −$1,277
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate38%53W / 87L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$4,473now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$104
7 days+$120
14 days+$128
30 days+$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% −$1,281
sports 11% −$2
other 10% −$272
world 6% −$787
finance 1% +$2
economics 1% −$187
crypto 0% −$84
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +5.2% -4.8% 58% 46% -6.4%
≤30d 37 +2.9% -6.9% 59% 43% -7.5%
≤90d 75 -17.8% -25.6% 43% 33% -15.7%
all 140 -22.3% -29.7% 38% 29% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 29% -16.4%
10% -36.4% 24% -24.4%
15% -42.5% 16% -31.7%
20% -48.2% 12% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -28% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$51 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

700d coverage
Net worth$4,473
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$1,277
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses53 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions8
Markets (closed)140 / 152
History coverage700d
Avg bet$396
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 82¢ $2,000 $3,270 +$1,270 (+64%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 18¢ $2,000 $730 −$1,270 (-64%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $180 $172 −$8 (-4%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 56¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 69¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$4 +16%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 +$16 +32%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $62 +$38 +61%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 −$1 -2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $115 −$115 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $391 −$388 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $163 +$37 +23%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $350 +$350 +100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $276 −$275 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 14 $113 +$338 +300%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $45 −$1 -3%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $231 +$69 +30%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $155 +$45 +29%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $205 +$105 +51%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $256 −$16 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $477 −$6 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $128 −$4 -3%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $110 +$8 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 1? Jun 01 $13 −$8 -64%
The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy May 31 $49 $0 -0%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $346 −$18 -5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $643 +$31 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $187 +$2 +1%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $277 −$277 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $248 +$50 +20%
CA Mineiro vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 1.5 May 22 $202 +$68 +33%
Brøndby IF vs. FC København: O/U 1.5 May 21 $157 +$43 +27%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 May 20 $245 +$115 +47%
Fluminense FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 1.5 May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5 May 19 $155 −$155 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 19 $152 −$152 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $198 +$102 +51%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $93 −$93 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $129 +$70 +54%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5 May 17 $103 +$27 +26%
Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5 May 17 $139 +$47 +34%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $709 +$201 +28%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5 May 16 $67 +$4 +6%
Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 30 $104 +$61 +58%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Apr 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $50 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $51 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 98¢ $26 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 79¢ $49 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $19 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $8 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $31 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY $5 12h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $50 12h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $25 12h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $50 12h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $25 12h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $50 12h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $50 12h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $50 26h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $50 26h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 26h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $50 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 60¢ $51 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $18 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $38 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $37 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $22 30h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 10¢ $4 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 10¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,472.77 · official $4,472.78 (match) · 669 history records