Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:14:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ed4…c624 politics 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 629d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 69L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$20
other 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
all 72 -1.8% -11.1% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

629d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage629d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $57 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 31 $57 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $58 $0 +1%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $58 $0 +0%
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $58 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $59 $0 -0%
Will Scott Morrow win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy? Feb 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Nov 24 $55 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Luca Doncic lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Deandre Ayton lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Damian Lillard lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Trump vs. Boden: First to 1B Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Megaquake in December? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Amon-Ra St. Brown be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Bird flu pandemic in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Rainbow airdrop in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
U.S. military action against Iran in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Martin Shkreli jail in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will Biden pardon Trump? Dec 21 $0 $0 -1%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of EPL? Dec 21 $1 $0 -2%
Will Jaxson Dart win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Doug Burgum confirmed as Secretary of the Interior? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Will Oklahoma State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will McLaren win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Warren Davidson be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech? Nov 26 $0 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the Western Conference? Nov 17 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 14h
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $57 19d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $57 20d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $57 30d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 31d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $57 35d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $57 35d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $57 46d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $57 46d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $58 62d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 65d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 65d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $58 74d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $58 74d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 90d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 91d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $58 94d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $58 95d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 97d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 98d
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 100¢ $58 99d
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 100¢ $58 99d
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 100¢ $0 99d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 102d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 103d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 103d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 103d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $58 108d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $59 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records