Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:24:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ed3…a20c other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$19
politics 27% −$12
sports 18% −$14
crypto 9% $0
culture 7% −$4
world 4% −$2
finance 3% −$4
tech 2% −$2
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.9% -10.3% 4% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 62 -0.9% -10.4% 3% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 109 -0.6% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.8%
all 122 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage99d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $99 −$2 -2%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $912 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $55 −$2 -4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $154 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $60 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $96 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $147 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $40 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $105 −$1 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $191 −$1 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $178 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $107 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $46 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 06 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $108 −$1 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $109 −$1 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $86 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $96 −$2 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $49 $0 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $65 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $128 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $29 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $278 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $112 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 01 $117 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $68 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $51 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $110 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $58 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $110 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 22 $41 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $50 1h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $60 2h
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $61 8h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $59 8h
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $60 15h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $37 16h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $38 20h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 20h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 28h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 28h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 34h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $46 35h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $47 41h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $53 42h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $55 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $52 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $52 2d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $49 2d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $50 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 93¢ $48 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $48 3d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $54 3d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $55 3d
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $60 3d
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $60 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $51 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $51 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $43 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $43 4d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $41 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.22 · official $49.22 (match) · 457 history records