Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ed2…03a3 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-2%) realized +$3 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% $0
sports 27% −$4
crypto 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.1% -12.3% 56% 56% -16.6%
≤30d 9 -3.1% -12.3% 56% 56% -16.6%
≤90d 9 -3.1% -12.3% 56% 56% -16.6%
all 9 -3.1% -12.3% 56% 56% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 56% -16.6%
10% -20.7% 56% -24.5%
15% -28.4% 22% -31.8%
20% -35.4% 11% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 20¢ 4¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -13%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 +$4 +151%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +45%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 57m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 60¢ $5 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 8h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $5 37h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $2 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 64¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $3 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 3d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.38 · official $16.05 · 24 history records