Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2E 0x2ed1…caa2 sports 654 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 152d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,683 (-11%) realized −$12,096 · open +$413
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%181W / 507L
Whale WR32%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$618now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 152d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$13,149
crypto 5% −$1,590
other 3% −$2,256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -96.6% -96.9% 3% 3% -91.0%
≤30d 70 -64.9% -68.2% 10% 10% -46.7%
≤90d 70 -64.9% -68.2% 10% 10% -46.7%
all 688 -5.7% -14.7% 26% 26% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 26% -26.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 26% -33.4%
15% -30.3% 26% -39.8%
20% -37.1% 25% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 32% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$292 vs −$142 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$618
Realized−$12,096
Unrealized+$413
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses181 / 507
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions2
Markets (closed)688 / 654
History coverage152d ⚠
Avg bet$166
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 688 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox New York Yankees 24¢ 84¢ $175 $618 +$442 (+252%)
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Rockets (-9.5) Jun 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Eastern Eu Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Elena Rybakina vs Elise Mertens Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Senators Jun 29 $72 −$72 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5) Jun 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Northern Colorado Bears vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Mertens (+1.5) Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Rockets: 1H Moneyline Jun 29 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Andrew Putnam win the 2026 The American Express tournament? Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Jun 29 $43 −$43 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina Jun 29 $208 −$208 -100%
Delaware State Hornets vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs Jun 29 $34 −$34 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode Jun 29 $42 −$42 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets: 1H Moneyline Jun 29 $75 −$75 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-10.5) Jun 29 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 The American Express tournament? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. New Mexico Lobos Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Panthers vs. Wild Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Tien (+2.5) Jun 29 $131 −$131 -100%
Celtics vs. Bulls Jun 29 $87 −$87 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Play Jun 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Pacers vs. Hawks Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Heat vs. Suns Jun 29 $74 −$74 -100%
Valorant: Blue Otter vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America Swiss Stage Jun 29 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: DRX Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Bruins vs. Rangers Jun 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Pelicans vs. Spurs Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jun 29 $175 −$175 -100%
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs 33 (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 Gr Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 The American Express tournament? Jun 29 $103 −$103 -100%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Jun 29 $142 +$38 +27%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $498 −$486 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $69 −$67 -97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $52 +$244 +474%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $590 −$580 -98%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 07 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd Jun 07 $590 −$575 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $514 +$461 +90%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 06 $502 −$502 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $511 −$500 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $408 −$400 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $65 −$65 -100%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 24¢ $178 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 24¢ $2 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? SELL Yes 56¢ $180 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 43¢ $142 2h
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 2h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 19¢ $498 12d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 1¢ $2 12d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 1¢ $5 12d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 2¢ $5 12d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 2¢ $5 12d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 3¢ $5 12d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 6¢ $21 12d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 4¢ $5 12d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 4¢ $5 12d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 5¢ $5 12d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 5¢ $5 12d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 6¢ $10 12d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 5¢ $26 12d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 17¢ $36 12d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 17¢ $16 12d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 42¢ $590 21d
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY PortlandFire 26¢ $307 21d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd BUY Yes 8¢ $77 21d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 52¢ $514 22d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd BUY Yes 16¢ $513 22d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 30¢ $285 22d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 30¢ $0 22d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 30¢ $4 22d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 30¢ $0 22d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 30¢ $2 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $617.98 · official $617.98 (match) · 3500 history records