Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:26:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2E 0x2ece…acf2 world 28 markets active 8d ago coverage 110d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,974 (+2%) realized +$3,483 · open +$491
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate63%17W / 10L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$8,569per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,962now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$18,534
30 days−$13,223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$3,957
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -1.6% -11.0% 70% 30% -17.6%
≤90d 23 +6.7% -3.4% 61% 35% -9.7%
all 27 +26.3% +14.3% 63% 41% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.3% 41% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here +3.3% 30% -17.0%
15% -6.7% 11% -25.0%
20% -15.8% 11% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$12,392) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +52% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,332 vs −$1,918 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$3,962
Realized+$3,483
Unrealized+$491
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses17 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage110d
Avg bet$8,569
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 96¢ $3,471 $3,962 +$491 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $16,594 −$10,155 -61%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2,550 −$101 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $20,469 −$8,278 -40%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1,059 +$38 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $49,365 +$1,118 +2%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $850 +$150 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $1,000 +$333 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $3,300 +$771 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $9,664 +$306 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $43,379 +$2,595 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $6,690 +$226 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 03 $19,846 +$857 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 30 $25,756 +$8,667 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $11,208 +$1,269 +11%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Apr 23 $1,000 −$10 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 23 $1,500 −$14 -1%
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Apr 22 $500 −$5 -1%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 22 $700 −$119 -17%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 22 $1,000 −$29 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $1,494 +$317 +21%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $1,945 +$471 +24%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Apr 19 $400 −$177 -44%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 09 $1,000 +$1,397 +140%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $1,000 +$299 +30%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $12,392 −$289 -2%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $1,212 +$1,317 +109%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $600 +$2,512 +419%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $3,471 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,471 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $2,860 10d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $2,323 10d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2,430 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $2,968 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $10,618 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $10,617 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $1,222 19d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $126 19d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1,097 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $17,698 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2,225 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $35 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $856 26d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $40 26d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $120 26d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $107 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $6,121 28d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? SELL No 100¢ $7,120 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $533 28d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? BUY No 97¢ $37 29d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? BUY No 97¢ $430 29d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? BUY No 97¢ $1,467 29d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? BUY No 75¢ $1,000 29d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY No 81¢ $3,300 29d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? BUY No 97¢ $5,000 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $4,822 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $133 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,962.26 · official $3,960.20 (match) · 243 history records