Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2E 0x2ece…dd5d world 34 markets active 3d ago coverage 293d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+2%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$2
other 22% +$21
politics 12% −$1
tech 6% $0
culture 3% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 11 +0.3% -9.2% 45% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 11 +0.3% -9.2% 45% 0% -9.3%
all 34 +1.7% -8.0% 41% 3% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 3% -7.7%
10% -16.8% 3% -16.5%
15% -24.8% 3% -24.6%
20% -32.2% 3% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×11.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×22.99 per $1 lost it wins $22.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

293d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage293d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $74 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $61 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $44 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $152 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $57 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $62 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $54 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 31 $35 +$21 +61%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Nov 04 $33 $0 +1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Sep 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 03 $31 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi Sep 02 $34 −$1 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 28 $36 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $55 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $55 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $38 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $61 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $43 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $44 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $9 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $21 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $21 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $18 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $54 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $54 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records