Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:37:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2E
0x2ece…0242
other · 15 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$29 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$31 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$164
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)6 / 15
History coverage33d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit40%
Chart Positions 9 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? Up 55¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13? Up 63¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 12 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +160%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $47 +$20 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13? May 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? May 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 88% +$34
sports 8% −$1
crypto 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $13 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $13 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 51¢ $14 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $15 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 42h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 42h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +65.5% +49.7% 67% 67% +34.3%
≤30d 3 +65.5% +49.7% 67% 67% +34.3%
≤90d 6 -17.3% -25.1% 33% 33% +27.2%
all 6 -17.3% -25.1% 33% 33% +27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 33% +27.2%
10% -32.3% 33% +15.0%
15% -38.8% 33% +3.9%
20% -44.8% 17% -6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.98 · official $163.98 (match) · 51 history records