Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:52:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ecd…fa61 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$97 (-1%) realized −$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate15%7W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$343per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 78% −$14
politics 16% −$12
other 4% −$31
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% −$48
tech 1% +$6
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.5% -39.8% 0% 0% -28.9%
≤30d 15 -13.4% -21.7% 7% 0% -14.8%
≤90d 35 -23.7% -31.0% 11% 3% -17.6%
all 48 -17.4% -25.2% 15% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 2% -10.0%
10% -32.4% 2% -18.6%
15% -38.9% 2% -26.5%
20% -44.9% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 93% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses7 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage590d
Avg bet$343
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 23 $52 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $38 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $42 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $34 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Blues vs. Ducks Apr 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Canadiens vs. Rangers Apr 06 $9 +$6 +72%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-22? Apr 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 02 $50 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 in February? Mar 05 $96 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 09 $90 +$6 +6%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 03 $13,542 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $45 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 13 $43 −$1 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $17 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $289 −$3 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $682 −$1 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 03 $875 −$5 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $872 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 32m
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $7 5d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $9 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 19d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $15 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.85 · official $32.85 (match) · 246 history records