Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:17:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2E 0x2ecb…7645 sports 326 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (422 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$16,697 (+24%) realized +$16,146 · open +$551
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%131W / 243L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day421.5pace
Fees−$655est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$8,764now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$6,968
other 21% −$1,439
economics 1% −$7
crypto 1% −$45
politics 0% +$292
culture 0% −$28
world 0% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (422 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 360 +43.7% +30.1% 35% 30% -7.9%
≤30d 374 +46.1% +32.2% 35% 30% -8.5%
≤90d 374 +46.1% +32.2% 35% 30% -8.5%
all 374 +46.1% +32.2% 35% 30% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover421.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +32.2% 30% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here +19.5% 23% -17.3%
15% +8.0% 20% -25.3%
20% -2.6% 17% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late +91% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$58 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$8,764
Realized+$16,146
Unrealized+$551
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses131 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$655
Open positions121
Markets (closed)374 / 326
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$210
Trades / day421.5
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 121 History 374 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 74¢ 75¢ $891 $900 +$10 (+1%)
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 56¢ 66¢ $296 $346 +$50 (+17%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 70¢ $398 $336 −$62 (-15%)
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $316 $320 +$4 (+1%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 98¢ $286 $305 +$19 (+7%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 88¢ $294 $298 +$4 (+1%)
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 94¢ $283 $285 +$3 (+1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $305 $282 −$23 (-8%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 7¢ 8¢ $252 $270 +$18 (+7%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 72¢ $218 $239 +$21 (+10%)
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? Yes 55¢ 94¢ $136 $232 +$95 (+70%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 72¢ $242 $226 −$16 (-6%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 82¢ $238 $224 −$14 (-6%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 77¢ 77¢ $222 $221 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 80¢ $225 $221 −$4 (-2%)
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 92¢ $191 $199 +$8 (+4%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $185 $198 +$13 (+7%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 79¢ $173 $181 +$7 (+4%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 95¢ $140 $143 +$3 (+2%)
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? No 76¢ 95¢ $111 $140 +$29 (+26%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $125 $127 +$2 (+1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 96¢ $112 $115 +$3 (+2%)
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 98¢ $105 $110 +$6 (+5%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 96¢ 99¢ $96 $99 +$3 (+4%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 98¢ $93 $98 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 159 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-03? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? Jun 17 $82 −$68 -84%
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $1 +$47 +3154%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 224.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? Jun 17 $2 +$14 +592%
Will Boston Legacy FC win on 2026-05-22? Jun 17 $38 −$34 -89%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 17 $2 +$4 +232%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-20? Jun 17 $78 −$65 -84%
Will Belarus vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Shubman Gill win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? Jun 17 $60 −$39 -65%
Will Slovenia vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $0 +$1 +1510%
Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-05-19? Jun 17 $1 +$44 +6981%
Will Denver Summit FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will DR Congo vs. Denmark end in a draw? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will "THE REVO" by PORNOGRAFFITTI (My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON) win Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Castres Olympique win? Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Slovenia vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CA Unión win on 2026-03-06? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Aalesunds FK win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $21 −$24 -115%
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $107 −$94 -89%
Will "Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle" win Film of the Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: VfB eSports vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $0 +$15 +26820%
Will Dundee FC vs. Aberdeen FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $34 −$25 -73%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-09? Jun 17 $84 −$55 -66%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 17 $5 +$63 +1313%
Will Toulon win? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-05-09? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will CA Tigre win on 2026-05-19? Jun 17 $29 −$26 -88%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs LUA Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 17 $137 −$108 -78%
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-19? Jun 17 $3 +$9 +277%
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 17 $558 −$520 -93%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gangwon FC vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $73 −$66 -91%
Will CD Comerciantes Unidos win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CA Platense win on 2026-05-27? Jun 17 $164 −$172 -104%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-27? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will FC Alverca vs. Estoril Praia end in a draw? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will "ReawakeR (feat. Felix of Stray Kids)" by LiSA (Solo Leveling Sea Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-05-23? Jun 17 $5 −$6 -118%
Set 1 Winner: Piros vs Barrios Jun 17 $0 +$18 +5792%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "Susannah Flood" win Best Leading Actress in a Play at the 2026 T Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Boston Legacy FC vs. Seattle Reign FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc" win Film of the Year at the Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 4m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19m
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 32m
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 32m
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 32m
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 32m
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 32m
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 32m
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 32m
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 36m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $17 52m
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,763.90 · official $8,774.75 (match) · 3500 history records