Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:43:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2E 0x2ec7…bcac world 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1 (+6%) realized +$3 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 69d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$2
other 23% +$1
politics 19% $0
finance 14% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +49.3% +35.0% 100% 100% +35.0%
≤90d 2 +44.0% +30.3% 100% 100% +30.2%
all 2 +44.0% +30.3% 100% 100% +30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.3% 100% +30.2%
10% +17.8% 100% +17.7%
15% +6.5% 100% +6.3%
20% -4.0% 0% -4.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage69d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 70¢ 69¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 57¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 6¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 26 $3 +$2 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? May 14 $4 +$1 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $4 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 67¢ $3 21d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 57¢ $3 32d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 57d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $4 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.22 · official $11.22 (match) · 6 history records