Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:24:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ec1…3353 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 390d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-5%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$1
other 21% −$26
politics 4% +$1
culture 3% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.8% -12.1% 14% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 23% 8% -9.3%
≤90d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 23% 8% -9.3%
all 33 -1.5% -10.8% 36% 9% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 9% -14.3%
10% -19.4% 6% -22.5%
15% -27.2% 3% -30.0%
20% -34.3% 0% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

390d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage390d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $52 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $24 −$5 -20%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $14 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $3 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $30 +$5 +18%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 14 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $6 +$1 +10%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by Friday? Jul 26 $5 −$1 -30%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 24 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jul 01 $1 $0 +32%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Circle IPO in 2025? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will United States win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $40 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $44 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $6 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $12 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 49¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $28 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.11 · official $40.11 (match) · 99 history records