Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:19:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ec0…3d5b sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-16%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%11W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$21
sports 34% +$1
crypto 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +11.3% +0.7% 33% 33% -25.6%
≤30d 33 +11.3% +0.7% 33% 33% -25.6%
≤90d 33 +11.3% +0.7% 33% 33% -25.6%
all 33 +11.3% +0.7% 33% 33% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 33% -25.6%
10% -9.0% 33% -32.7%
15% -17.8% 33% -39.2%
20% -25.8% 33% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses11 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage5d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Yes 33¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$2 +185%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 +$1 +98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +95%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +343%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 +$8 +784%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $1 +$4 +364%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 +$6 +124%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -87%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$14 +133%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $10 +$10 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 85¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $1 9h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 27h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $2 30h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 42h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 42h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $5 42h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $1 43h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 2d
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $5 2d
Scotland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.39 · official $1.32 (match) · 51 history records