Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:50:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2ec0…57c6 politics 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,134 (+1%) realized +$1,135 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate17%24W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$1,376per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$14
14 days+$26
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$104
other 32% −$369
sports 15% +$1,587
economics 3% −$6
world 2% −$13
culture 2% −$4
crypto 1% −$9
finance 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 34 +0.7% -8.9% 12% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 87 -11.3% -19.7% 8% 5% -8.9%
all 138 -1.4% -10.8% 17% 9% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 9% -9.0%
10% -19.3% 9% -17.7%
15% -27.1% 8% -25.7%
20% -34.3% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,821) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$10 · ×9.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$415
Realized+$1,135
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses24 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage138d
Avg bet$1,376
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $417 $415 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,632 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $978 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $4,186 −$5 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 16 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,348 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,173 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,824 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,140 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $6,319 −$8 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,237 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $66 +$64 +97%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $52 +$67 +129%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $288 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $563 +$1 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $394 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,379 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $3,211 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $411 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $4,758 −$7 -0%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) May 25 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $2,399 −$3 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $1,032 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $1,213 −$2 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,345 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $1,272 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $2,689 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $3,601 −$3 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $1,352 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $3,972 −$5 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,635 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $2,364 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $3,277 −$4 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $1,365 −$2 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $476 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $477 4h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $274 26h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $275 27h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $977 29h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $465 32h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $513 32h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $846 3d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $848 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,034 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,036 3d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $962 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $964 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $417 7d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,285 8d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,287 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,346 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,348 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,171 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,173 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,030 9d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,031 10d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $984 10d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $985 10d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,138 11d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,140 11d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $786 12d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $787 12d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,174 12d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,176 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $415.48 · official $415.48 (match) · 425 history records