Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:09:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2E 0x2ebb…31cc crypto 206 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$1,470 (+11%) realized +$1,502 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate76%136W / 44L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$24
crypto 16% +$1,446
sports 4% −$23
world 1% −$29
politics 0% +$5
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +21.2% +9.7% 14% 14% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -6.5% -15.4% 20% 20% -9.7%
≤90d 92 -15.5% -23.6% 54% 12% -10.0%
all 180 -1.0% -10.4% 76% 13% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 13% +0.4%
10% -19.0% 10% -9.2%
15% -26.8% 9% -17.9%
20% -34.0% 8% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$2 · ×5.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.83 per $1 lost it wins $17.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$1,502
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses136 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions25
Markets (closed)180 / 206
History coverage132d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 50¢ 85¢ $40 $67 +$28 (+70%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $40 $12 −$28 (-70%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 7¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-61%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 82¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 84¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 38¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 49¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 51¢ 43¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? Yes 27¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1,301 −$3 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,223 −$5 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,231 −$4 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,235 −$4 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,241 −$4 -0%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 01 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets in May 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets in May 2026? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $1 +$3 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 13 $1 +$1 +65%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 13 $1 +$1 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 13 $1 +$3 +296%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 09 $2 +$7 +354%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings May 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1,298 45m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1,301 49m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,219 50m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,223 51m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,227 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,231 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,231 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,235 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $2,237 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,241 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND W BUY 43¢ $2 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 17d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 17d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $1 19d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 47¢ $2 23d
Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 23d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 33d
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 33d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 83¢ $1 33d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 36d
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.97 · official $105.98 (match) · 464 history records