Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:07:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2E 0x2eba…ffa3 other 298 markets active 1d ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,867 (+2%) realized +$4,218 · open −$1,351
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate52%140W / 128L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$464per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$3,151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3,728
14 days+$2,527
30 days+$1,672
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$8,756
world 30% −$4,314
tech 15% −$1,954
politics 9% −$850
economics 2% +$651
crypto 1% +$550
culture 1% −$11
finance 0% +$15
weather 0% +$7
sports 0% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +301.8% +263.5% 80% 60% +122.0%
≤30d 20 +77.8% +60.9% 40% 35% +13.0%
≤90d 61 +34.8% +22.0% 49% 41% +2.5%
all 268 +4.2% -5.7% 52% 35% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 35% -6.8%
10% -14.7% 26% -15.7%
15% -23.0% 20% -23.8%
20% -30.5% 15% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$156 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$3,151
Realized+$4,218
Unrealized−$1,351
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses140 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Open positions30
Markets (closed)268 / 298
History coverage332d
Avg bet$464
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 46¢ 11¢ $1,641 $391 −$1,250 (-76%)
Will Waymo operate in 7 cities on June 30 2026? Yes 4¢ 41¢ $33 $343 +$310 (+948%)
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? No 52¢ 82¢ $208 $330 +$122 (+59%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 60¢ 57¢ $240 $230 −$10 (-4%)
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? No 68¢ 88¢ $155 $204 +$48 (+31%)
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Yes 51¢ 76¢ $122 $182 +$60 (+49%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 76¢ 88¢ $151 $176 +$25 (+17%)
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? No 83¢ 86¢ $166 $173 +$7 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Yes 13¢ 3¢ $547 $135 −$411 (-75%)
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? No 23¢ 25¢ $92 $100 +$8 (+9%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $104 $99 −$5 (-5%)
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? No 41¢ 94¢ $41 $94 +$53 (+129%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $93 $92 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 52¢ 44¢ $104 $87 −$17 (-16%)
Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal? No 60¢ 44¢ $108 $80 −$28 (-26%)
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? No 73¢ 78¢ $73 $78 +$4 (+6%)
US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+26%)
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? No 62¢ 52¢ $62 $52 −$10 (-16%)
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026? No 19¢ 78¢ $8 $35 +$26 (+313%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-9%)
Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal? No 52¢ 62¢ $26 $31 +$5 (+20%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 24¢ 7¢ $97 $28 −$69 (-71%)
Will Waymo operate in 10 cities on June 30 2026? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $62 $27 −$34 (-56%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $198 $23 −$175 (-88%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? No 54¢ 95¢ $11 $19 +$8 (+75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $92 +$214 +233%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,238 +$2,136 +172%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $200 +$2,401 +1200%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $1,024 −$1,024 -100%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $75 +$638 +856%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 08 $430 −$255 -59%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 08 $114 −$64 -56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 08 $145 −$145 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $964 −$964 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 08 $70 −$70 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 08 $72 −$72 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $504 −$504 -100%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 08 $130 +$70 +54%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 08 $287 +$113 +39%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 08 $348 +$52 +15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 26 $20 −$10 -51%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? May 26 $20 −$15 -74%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 25 $622 −$470 -76%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $360 −$360 -100%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? May 19 $23 +$27 +117%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 19 $99 −$42 -42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 11 $756 −$14 -2%
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480? May 08 $161 −$156 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 08 $110 +$187 +170%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 08 $82 +$36 +44%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 08 $4,230 +$1,402 +33%
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? May 05 $40 −$11 -28%
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30? May 03 $164 +$110 +67%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 01 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 29 $360 −$360 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 28 $686 −$266 -39%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $498 +$48 +10%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $306 +$78 +26%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 16 $568 +$176 +31%
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15? Apr 16 $349 +$82 +24%
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $950 −$654 -69%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Apr 15 $126 +$318 +252%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Apr 11 $1,078 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $18 +$182 +1011%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Apr 09 $144 +$2 +1%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $194 +$106 +55%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Apr 08 $24 −$14 -58%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 07 $278 +$8 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $451 +$77 +17%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $301 +$38 +12%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 07 $590 −$590 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $33 24h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 25h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 25h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 26h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $47 35h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 36h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 37h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 37h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $38 39h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 39h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 40h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 40h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 40h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 41h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 41h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 41h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 41h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $18 42h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 42h
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $6 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $18 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,151.41 · official $3,142.96 (match) · 2125 history records