Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2E 0x2eb8…0d00 weather 380 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$167 (-1%) realized −$88 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate81%290W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day32.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$802now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$272
7 days−$185
14 days−$237
30 days−$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% −$343
crypto 4% +$80
other 3% −$116
sports 1% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 214 -6.7% -15.6% 80% 47% -10.9%
≤30d 360 -4.8% -13.9% 81% 47% -11.0%
≤90d 360 -4.8% -13.9% 81% 47% -11.0%
all 360 -4.8% -13.9% 81% 47% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 47% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 22% -19.5%
15% -29.7% 10% -27.3%
20% -36.5% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$35 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$802
Realized−$88
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses290 / 70
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions20
Markets (closed)360 / 380
History coverage20d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 360 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Yes 67¢ 78¢ $99 $117 +$18 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $89 $101 +$12 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $69 $87 +$17 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Yes 78¢ 88¢ $59 $68 +$8 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 15? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $49 $55 +$6 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 15? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $40 $49 +$9 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $40 $47 +$7 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Yes 57¢ 50¢ $49 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Yes 81¢ 91¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Yes 72¢ 100¢ $20 $27 +$8 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Yes 76¢ 68¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $20 $18 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Yes 91¢ 82¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Yes 76¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $30 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $70 +$12 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $60 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $104 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? Jun 16 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$7 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $45 +$26 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $70 +$14 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $65 +$23 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $134 +$10 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $75 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $55 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $70 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $70 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $75 +$38 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $110 +$34 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $60 +$14 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 15 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $151 −$151 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $70 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $90 −$89 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $70 +$8 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $60 −$59 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $79 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $60 +$8 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $54 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $20 +$3 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 2m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 2m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 3m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 6m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 30m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 32m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 32m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 36m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 59m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $802.41 · official $802.41 (match) · 1020 history records