Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2E 0x2eb8…9dea politics 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$1
other 35% $0
sports 6% $0
tech 6% $0
economics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage109d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $102 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $102 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $102 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $102 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $102 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $102 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $102 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $104 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 12 $103 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $103 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 06 $104 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $104 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $104 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $104 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 10 $104 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $102 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $102 16h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $102 10d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $102 10d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $102 21d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $102 22d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $102 29d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 29d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $102 39d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $102 39d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 40d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 41d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 41d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 41d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $102 45d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 45d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $102 50d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 50d
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $103 72d
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $104 72d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $104 75d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $103 76d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $103 78d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $103 78d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $103 81d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $104 82d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $104 90d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $104 91d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $104 101d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records