Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:19:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

2E 0x2eb5…41ad sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$490 (+4%) realized +$2,953 · open −$2,463

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%9W / 9L

Whale WR60%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$521per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$171est.

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$1,630now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-17.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-8.9%	-17.5%	50%	50%	-4.7%
≤30d	18	-8.9%	-17.5%	50%	50%	-4.7%
≤90d	18	-8.9%	-17.5%	50%	50%	-4.7%
all	18	-8.9%	-17.5%	50%	50%	-4.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.5%	50%	-4.7%
10%	-25.4%	50%	-13.8%
15%	-32.6%	44%	-22.2%
20%	-39.2%	44%	-29.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 63% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 60% (≥$610) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +20% → late -38% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$386 vs −$340 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.14 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$1,630

Realized+$2,953

Unrealized−$2,463

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses9 / 9

Whale WR (big bets)60%

Est. fees paid−$171

Open positions5

Markets (closed)18 / 23

History coverage6d

Avg bet$521

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	Over	53¢	100¢	$863	$1,627	+$764 (+89%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5	Under	50¢	0¢	$2,000	$2	−$1,998 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Under	51¢	0¢	$510	$0	−$510 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Under	56¢	0¢	$500	$0	−$500 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	Under	44¢	0¢	$220	$0	−$220 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 29	$1,015	−$1,015	-100%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 29	$1,483	+$1,600	+108%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 29	$812	+$588	+72%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 28	$507	+$386	+76%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 28	$394	−$391	-99%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5	Jun 28	$202	−$200	-99%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5	Jun 28	$610	−$610	-100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 27	$203	−$200	-99%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 27	$284	−$280	-99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$105	+$95	+90%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5	Jun 26	$1,519	+$522	+34%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	Jun 25	$5	+$5	+100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$109	+$91	+83%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$159	−$158	-99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$100	−$100	-100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 25	$106	+$94	+89%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$106	+$94	+89%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)	Jun 24	$106	−$106	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	53¢	$875	43m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	50¢	$2,030	49m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	56¢	$507	1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	44¢	$224	3h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	51¢	$517	3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	48¢	$1,016	5h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	46¢	$61	5h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	46¢	$406	5h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	50¢	$1,015	7h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	58¢	$658	10h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	58¢	$87	10h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	58¢	$17	10h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	58¢	$17	10h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	58¢	$33	10h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	72¢	$394	2d
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	60¢	$202	2d
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	56¢	$507	2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	61¢	$597	2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	61¢	$6	2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	61¢	$4	2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	61¢	$2	2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	61¢	$1	2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	57¢	$203	2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	52¢	$284	2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	52¢	$105	3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	62¢	$1,011	3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5	SELL Over	40¢	$430	3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5	BUY Over	46¢	$508	3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	50¢	$50	5d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	54¢	$109	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,629.89 · official $1,629.89 (match) · 52 history records