Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:51:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2E 0x2eb4…59d4 sports 140 markets active 0h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$395 (-15%) realized −$406 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%57W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$29
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$389
other 3% +$1
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +60.6% +45.3% 60% 53% +18.7%
≤30d 15 +60.6% +45.3% 60% 53% +18.7%
≤90d 15 +60.6% +45.3% 60% 53% +18.7%
all 135 -9.9% -18.5% 42% 41% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 41% -23.3%
10% -26.3% 39% -30.7%
15% -33.4% 36% -37.4%
20% -39.9% 29% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$406
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses57 / 78
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)135 / 140
History coverage208d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 98¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+91%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Yes 14¢ 46¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+229%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 18¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$11 +550%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +95%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +134%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$8 +158%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$12 +119%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Celtics vs. Nuggets Feb 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Feb 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qual Jan 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier Jan 17 $51 +$37 +72%
Suns vs. Pistons Jan 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Jazz vs. Mavericks Jan 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-13.5) Jan 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Kings Jan 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Bucks Jan 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Nuggets vs. Pelicans Jan 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Hawks vs. Lakers Jan 15 $40 +$11 +27%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Jan 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bulls vs. Rockets Jan 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jan 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs BASEMENT BOYS (BO3) Jan 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) Jan 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Celtics vs. Pacers Jan 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucks vs. Nuggets Jan 12 $10 −$10 -100%
76ers vs. Raptors Jan 12 $2 +$8 +400%
Hawks vs. Warriors Jan 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jan 12 $5 +$8 +156%
Magic vs. 76ers Jan 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs MOUZ (BO3) Jan 10 $9 −$9 -100%
India ODI Series: India vs South Africa (Game 2) Jan 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Jan 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Suns Jan 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs OG (BO1) Jan 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Clippers vs. Lakers Jan 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs OG (BO1) Jan 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Tidebound (BO1) Jan 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jan 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Jan 10 $33 −$33 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tearlaments - Game 2 Winner Jan 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Heroic (BO3) Jan 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Passion UA (BO3) Jan 10 $38 −$38 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 26m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 15h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 43¢ $5 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 34h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 34h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 34h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $5 34h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 27¢ $5 36h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 42¢ $5 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $5 41h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $10 41h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 2d
Celtics vs. Nuggets BUY Celtics 43¢ $15 109d
Cavaliers vs. Bucks BUY Cavaliers 22¢ $10 109d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qual BUY Aurora Gaming 72¢ $88 148d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier SELL Liquid 100¢ $88 148d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier BUY Liquid 58¢ $51 148d
Suns vs. Pistons BUY Suns 43¢ $5 150d
Jazz vs. Mavericks BUY Jazz 47¢ $10 150d
Spread: Clippers (-13.5) BUY Wizards 43¢ $5 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.45 · official $40.45 (match) · 253 history records