Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2E 0x2eb4…3c62 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$222 (+3%) realized −$56 · open +$278
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$809per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$5,850now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$115
crypto 2% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -16.1% -24.1% 50% 0% -35.7%
≤30d 2 -16.1% -24.1% 50% 0% -35.7%
≤90d 2 -16.1% -24.1% 50% 0% -35.7%
all 2 -16.1% -24.1% 50% 0% -35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 0% -35.7%
10% -31.3% 0% -41.9%
15% -38.0% 0% -47.5%
20% -44.0% 0% -52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$163 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$5,850
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$278
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)2 / 8
History coverage26d
Avg bet$809
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $1,234 $1,656 +$422 (+34%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 21¢ $649 $1,533 +$884 (+136%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $991 $775 −$216 (-22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $1,198 $768 −$429 (-36%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $808 $739 −$69 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $693 $379 −$314 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $119 +$9 +7%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $415 −$163 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $381 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $128 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $252 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $119 26d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $415 26d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $637 26d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $667 26d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $711 26d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $829 26d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,227 26d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,264 26d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $205 26d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $217 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,849.89 · official $5,849.89 (match) · 39 history records